Showing posts with label Opinion. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Opinion. Show all posts

Thursday, March 24, 2011

Volatile Trades on SGX

 Something unusual happened on Nifty Futures Traded at Singapore Exchange, There are couple of volatile trades can be seen from the high and low prices registered .As today is expiry for derivatives one can expect market to be volatile but +5% to -5% a swing of 10% on a normal day is bit abnormal. We will see if we can get any information from google on how those trades happened. I will be crossing my fingers as am having a one side position on market

SGX QUEST Trading Hours: Mon-Fri 9.00am - 6.15pm
SGX QUEST (T+1) Trading Hours: Mon-Fri 7.15pm - 1.00am
  Contract Month Last Chg From Prev Settle Bid Ask Open High Low Close Vol Open Int Prev. Day Settle Settle
E  Mar  11 5,538.50 +35.50 5,537.00 5,538.50 5,524.00 5,799.50 5,273.00 - 12,271 216,849 5,503.00 -
E*  Mar  11 - 0 5,483.00 5,650.00 - - - - - - - -
E  Apr  11 5,551.50 +29.50 5,556.00 5,559.50 5,539.00 5,587.50 5,500.00 - 1,602 1,521 5,522.00 -




































































































Sunday, January 2, 2011

Market Direction in the New Year

Markets went into New year in good move. Nifty started 2010 at 5200 and ended at 6134 primarily because of global recovery and its impact on domestic recovery (consumption,manufacturing,imports etc..) and Strong FII flows into EM's which gave an 18% Return.

Nifty Started Jan Option Series with a Good move on  Friday. A Lot of PUT Writing Happening at 6000 Levels and can safely say for now that 6000 is good support for the upmove which  started from last week.

Good amount of CALL Writing also happened at 6300 levels which clearly acts as resistance for now. Also on 31st December PCR value is 1.29 for Index Options which indicates a lot of PUT writing happening when compared to CALL writing and NIFTY is in upmove atleast in the near term say for the next 1-2 Weeks.


Another interesting thing in the current series is NIFTY Rollover seen at 61.2 % which is very low compared to previous month of  75 % and rollover numbers say that not many participants are taking the positions which they had in December. But overall JAN Market wide rollover is at 84.5% compared with 85.5% in DEC Rollover and that looks like a good sentiment in contrast to Index Rollover positions.




Once the inflation numbers comes up next week and if that is in uncomfortable range then RBI will be going for Rate Hike which might hamper the sentiment on the street.

Call writing is a branch of options trading strategy involving the selling of call options to earn premiums.
Put writing is a family of options trading strategies that involve the selling of put options to earn premiums.



Wednesday, December 8, 2010

Five Frontier Issues in Indian Banking...by Dr. Duvvuri Subbarao

Excellent address by RBI Governor to  bankers at  the BANCON 2010, here he talks about the way indian banks withstood during crisis and regulatory change which is going to happening in form of BASEL 3 accord.
He put forward some ideas and asked banks to discuss on it .
First Issue : Are Indian Banks Prepared for Basel III? 
The building blocks of Basel III are by now quite well known: higher and better quality capital; an internationally harmonized leverage ratio to constrain excessive risk taking; capital buffers which would be built up in good times so that they can be drawn down in times of stress; minimum global liquidity standards; and stronger standards for supervision, public disclosure and risk management. 
 The Basel III package includes capital buffers to contain the pro-cyclicality of the financial sector. Building capital buffers will entail additional costs for banks with consequent implications for investment and hence for overall growth.
Building Buffers will make the capital ideal and will not add anything into productive, it is meant to use at bad times(its like putting more money in savings deposit(RBI) for interest rate...there by curtailing the lending power of banks to some extent.
To effectively deploy countercyclical measures, we also need to improve our capabilities to predict business cycles at the aggregate and sectoral levels, and identify them in real time. This will require better quality of economic and financial data as well as improved analytical capabilities.
 In India the data collected from Ministry of Statistics is sometimes inadequate to predict the right conditions across the economy as well as markets, we need a more reliant  streamlined data from each  sector across the eonomy . I guess this can be done only when government makes a regulation for mandatory data submission from each  department where it works...example:Collect all the land registrations across Pan India to get a feel of real estate sector pricing, collecting pricing from companies which manufacture the products etc..
Estimates show that the leverage in the Indian banking system is quite moderate. Notwithstanding the fact that the SLR portfolio of our banks will be included in computing the leverage ratio, Indian banks will not have a problem in meeting the leverage ratio requirement since the Tier 1 capital of many Indian banks is comfortable (more than 9%) and their derivatives portfolios are also not very large
 Indian banks will not have problem in meeting the ratio as long as real estate value goes up,but once it starts coming down, we might feel the pinch.Though the derivatives positions of banks are not large our banks show significant revenue from trading.
Second Issue:  Should Indian Banks Aim to Become Global?
The second issue I want to address is one that comes up frequently - that Indian banks should aim to become global. Most people who put forward this view have not thought through the costs and benefits analytically; they only see this as an aspiration consistent with India’s growing international profile.
 Are our banks ready to become global and ready to meet the demands of global citizens..( Can Mittal bank on Indian bank to fund a major acquisitions across the globe?). Though SBI missed the boat of acquiring Citi Bank when it was trading at 1$ at the hieght of finanacial crisis due to government inefficient bureaucracy.
Can Indian banks aspire to global size?
As per the current global league tables based on the size of assets, our largest bank, the State Bank of India (SBI), together with its subsidiaries, comes in at No.74 followed by ICICI Bank at No.145 and Bank of Baroda at 188.  It is, therefore, unlikely that any of our banks will jump into the top ten of the global league even after reasonable consolidation.
 Should Indian banks aspire to global size?
Opinion on this is divided. Those who argue that we must go global contend that the issue is not so much the size of our banks in global rankings but of Indian banks having a strong enough global presence. The main argument is that the increasing global size and influence of Indian corporates warrant a corresponding increase in the global footprint of Indian banks.
The opposing view is that Indian banks should look inwards rather than outwards, focus their efforts on financial deepening at home rather than aspiring to global size
Third Issue: Should We Mandate Foreign Banks to Come in Only as Subsidiaries?
 Here he talks about the subsidiaries role in indian context
Fourth Issue:  Why Do We Need to Rewrite Laws Governing the Banking Sector?  
Infact banking laws helped us to maintain a orderly banking system during crisis. 
Requirement of minimum paid up capital and reserves, restrictions on payment of dividend, transfer of a percentage of profits to reserves, maintenance of SLR, restrictions on connected lending, maintaining a percentage of domestic liabilities as assets in India have all helped the Reserve Bank in preventing crises and maintaining financial stability.
 Fifth Issue : Where Do Indian Banks Stand on Efficiency Parameters?
There has been a particularly discernible improvement in banks’ operating efficiency in recent years owing to technology upgradation and staff restructuring 
 One such is Core Banking System which helped banks to offer more services and reduced the time lag in delivering the services
He advised the banks to raise the interest rates offered to depositors and reduce the lending rates charged on borrowers - in other words, reduce their intermediation costs, or in technical terminology, reduce the net interest margin (NIM).
This will lead to decreasing margins for banks and i beilive this lead to Bank Sector tanking down 3%  in today's market.


Wednesday, November 17, 2010

Whats Ahead for Markets from Options Data

Concerns of Debt Crisis in Ireland along with expectations of a Rate hike in China in coming days(might be this week) prompted investors across the market to liquidate there positions and looking  for safer assets.

Irish banks have there own problem of debt caused by the housing bubble and similar is the case with portugal. Even EU and IMF are trying for bailout but markets are concerned that the problems might be spread to other peripharel countries.

Nifty Shed 132 points and settled at very crucial support point of 5980 . On the Equity Side we have
FII 16-Nov-2010 3157.02 3353.71 -196.69  
DII 16-Nov-2010 1542.54 1092.95 449.59
FII were Net Sellers and DII were Net Buyers.
On the other Side if we see the options Data where all the action happens moreover most of the action over there is done by FII's.
  • Nifty call options added 57.75 lakh shares in open interest whereas put options shed 4.00 lakh shares in open interest.

Options Data on 16-10-2010








There is lot CALL Writing happened at 6000 Levels with increase of  Open Interest of 27Lakhs meaning it will take RESISTANCE at these levels in coming days and also OI got increased for 6100 and 6200 means in coming days it will be tough to reach those positions.

In the PUT Side we have increase of OI at 5900 with Put Writing seen at 5900 and 5800 coupled with increase in OI expecting market not to go down and Taking a SUPPORT at these levels, though 6000 PUT writing happened many positions were closed as can be seen with decrease in OI of 8 Lakhs,similarly 6100 PUT and 6200 PUT had seen Decrease in OI .That means many PUT Writers closed there positions expecting that market might head south and there by limiting there loses.

Similarly we have seen Lot of CALL Writing at 6100,6200 meaning thatWriters are not expecting to go above in coming days...

Looks like it might Trade in 5900+ to 6100 in coming days

Telecom Scam---Part1

Though am not interested in reading political news (waste of time) this particular telecom scam made to look a bit into Google and find what happened and happening with scam. It’s high time to look into evidence of Telecom Scam which is rocking the parliament for couple of days.

Here is article by Canary Trap time line of events:

August 28, 2007: In 2001, there were only 4 million cell phone subscribers; whereas by 2007-2008, the number of cell phone subscribers was around 350 million. Thus by fixing license fees at 2001 prices, the Telecom Ministry enabled companies that were allotted licenses to command huge premia.


CompanyLicense PaidSold to
Swan153745 % sold to Etisalat for 4200 cr
Unitech166160 % sold to Telenor
Tata--26 % sold to Docomo

Based on the aforesaid sale of shares by Unitech and Swan, the market value of these 9 new 2G licenses amount to a total of Rs 70,022.42 crores, for which these 9 companies/conglomerates had paid DoT a total of Rs 10,772.68 crores.

October 21, 2009: The CBI registered an FIR in the scam.

April 28, 2010:Details of tapes establishing Raja’s dubious role in the scam surfaces in the media. Opposition parties demanded that the PM sack Raja.

A little bit of digging the information led me to this page where the reporter of magazine gave confidential information which main stream media never talked.


Some excerpts from it:
Radia close associate of Raja has been key in getting license and spectrum to the following telecom companies 1) swan2) aircel3) Unitech wireless4) Datacom

  • Datacom was setup by HFCL group along with Mr.Dhoot of Videocon is alleged to be having funding through Mukesh Ambani group through a employee Manoj Modi
  •  Swan on paper is backed by Mumbai based real estate Company Dynamix Balwas group of companies and it was moved up the priority list of spectrum allocation by DOT
  •  UAE telecom giant Ehtisalat controls about 45% of swan telecom and for this they paid $900million.
  •  This deal make Swan at $2 Billion and at present Mumbai based Delphi investments holds 9.9% stake in Swan.90.1 stake in Swan Telecom is owned by Tiger Trustees which in turn is 99.8% owned by Dynamix Balwas Ltd.
  •  Seems that Raja and Radia have interests in Swan and there associates are on board of Swan
CBI registered a case against conspiracy between few public officers and private persons in grant of telecom license in 2007-08.It is learnt that certain individuals like Ms Radia of Noesis consultancy were involved in the above mentioned criminal case and DGI and Income Tax authorities tapped the wires of Radia to get some information.

The companies which she and co consult are not only for telecom, aerospace, power and infrastructure but also influence and change policies of government to suit commercial requirements of various clients.
From the conversations it appears that she had role in telecom license and guides a newly formed telecom company to delay the stake sale and not to look at it as a windfall gain. There are some direct conversations of her and telecom minister. In some other conversations she boasts of herself for obtaining telecom license for few companies.
June internal evaluation report from DGI
Totally 9 lines were kept under surveillance during the month of June 2009 belong to two separate groups. First group relates to a PR agency.

  • The conversations indicate money laundering and structured payoffs transactions and liaison for projects of telecom and power.
  •  Also indicate cross borer transactions related to telecom, petroleum and media.
Second group comprises of 3 members
  •  And calls to this group appear relate to financial transactions ranging in crores including foreign bank accounts
  • Unauthorized international derivative transactions
  • In fact there appears some calls related to cricket betting and some other sports (ohhh I was under impression that betting happens only in cricket, seems now cricket has a rival)
July internal evaluation report from DGI
First group: As per conversations

  • The associates have apparently fronted for someone (Mukesh Ambani) to acquire a news channel (9X) in India and there appears some cross border transactions.
  •  Conversations of target (Radia) with a businessman (Tarun Das FICCI Chair and Government Nominee…Mukesh Ambani) who is also a government nominee on a State PSU (haldia Petro) appears to suggest that a target along with business man is trying to facilitate a take over of this PSU by a large client (RIL) of target.
  •  The Target as per telephone conversations facilitated for a few filing PILs by NGO to hurt the business interests if the rival clients (Anil Ambani ADAG)
Reports on news in whispers in Corridor:
  •  Reports that Sunil Mittal is also banking on with Radia to make peace with Raja on foreign take over and his interests in spectrum
  •  Neera Radia is chief of Vaishnav Corporate Consultants Pvt Ltd, Noesis Consulting Vitocom and Neucom Consulting. Vitocom has been handling the business of NDTV Imagine.
  • Neucom was set up to handle affairs of Mukesh Ambani Group.
  • Vaishnav handles the affairs of Tata, Unitech, and Star TV along with other clients.
  • Noesis officially comprises of retired senior bureaucrats and controlled by Radia.
  • There is long conversation between Ratan Tata and Radia which establishes that Tata does not want Maran to be Telecom Minister at any cost.Tata felt the need to exit telecom if Maran becomes Minister.
  •  Looks like Radia is also in touch with Neera and Ratnam CA of Karunandhi wife (wovvvv…first time I heard of this…).
  •  Radia and Kanimozhi behalf of Burhka Dutt(NDTV fame..I guess now she is in CNN IBN) and Vir Sanghvi (Not Sure of this Person) were negotiating minister berths for DMK members.
  •  Sunil Mittal lobbied to prevent Raja to become telecom minister and Tata Lobbied to prevent Maran from becoming Telecom Minister. (Another wovvv)
  •  In Jharkhand Tata’s need lease of to extend for which the great madhu koda (1000 crore scam) asked for 180 crores. Radia got the lease extension from governor for which ratan Tata sanctioned 1 crores as reward for the team
  • FICCI chief Tarun Das is chairman of haldia petro corp. and Mukesh wants to take over it. With help of Radia they are handling the matter
  •  As per conversations there appears RIL purchasing a house for VK Duggal, Director General of Hydrocarbons News
  •   9X was controlled by Mukesh Ambani
If this is real then all credibility gained by Mr Clean MM Singh are thrown into dustbin.
Moreover none of the news papers are willing to post the news related to it. Seems government is denying that it never allowed wire tapings.

Wednesday, November 10, 2010

Pulse of Commerce Index

Here is another Leading Indicator in which tracks US Economy.
 The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ is based on real-time diesel fuel consumption data for over the road trucking and serves as an indicator of the state and possible future direction of the U.S. economy. By tracking the volume and location of fuel being purchased, the index closely monitors the over the road movement of raw materials, goods-in-process and finished goods to U.S. factories, retailers and consumers.
October Month report signals economy is not going in right direction for now.
 Here is the October Report.

The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) by the UCLA Anderson School of Management, adjusted for season and for monthly workdays, fell 0.6% in October following a decline of 0.5% in September and a decline of 1.0% in August, which was the first three consecutive months of decline since January 2009, when we were still deep in recession



October is especially important because it is the peak month for holiday shipping, with a seasonal factor of 1.029 compared with 0.978 in November and 0.941 for December. The October decline in the PCI can be summarized in a single word: worry. Worry about the strength of sales in the holiday period has apparently caused a slowdown in trucking in October which might be only a postponement to November if consumers show a little more exuberance.


The PCI this month is disappointing because the growth in the economy in the first three quarters of this year if sustained would have made the holiday even better.The declines in the PCI in the last three months suggest further slowing of growth of industrial production.


There is a one to one relationship of GDP and IIP with PCI and also  PCI report comes before IIP and GDP report . Looks PCI is a Good indicator to keep Track in future

Friday, November 5, 2010

HSBC October Purchasing Managers Index

The latest PMI data pointed to a marked expansion of Indian private sector output. Activity in both the manufacturing and service sectors grew at faster rates in October, with the headline HSBC India Composite PMI posting 58.4, from 56.5 in September

Commenting on the India Services PMI survey, Frederic Neumann, Co-Head of Asian Economics Research at HSBC said:
“India's service sector picked up steam in October, with firms continuing to add jobs. The details, however, suggest that services might cool in the coming months, with new business growth decelerating slightly and backlogs contracting. The RBI may take comfort in the fact that both output and input price pressures are easing, although this is not sufficient to raise a definitive green flag on inflation.”

Key points
• Expansion of new business in the service sector continued to slow.
Contribution of Service Sector to GDP is huge and it might act as drag on 8% growth rate
• Overall employment rose, after remaining unchanged in September.
• Falling charges in services offset an increase in manufacturers’ output prices.
Increase in manufactured product prices will add the already high inflation

 Previous Posts:
hsbc-india-services-pmi-economic.html

Monday, November 1, 2010

Macroeconomic and Monetary Developments --RBI Second Quarter Review

RBI in its 2nd quarter review is more concerned about the inflation  and the capital inflows coming into EME which might lead to currency appreciation and asset price bubbles. Also talks about Current account deficit and Capital Account surplus and going forward how its going to be. One can get a Good understanding of Economics by reading this Report
The output growth of the Indian economy has started to consolidate around the trend
after a sharp recovery and the headline inflation also shows signs of peaking off. Going
forward, various forward looking surveys conducted in the recent period suggest strong
y-o-y growth. The Industrial Outlook Survey of the Reserve Bank also points to
continuation of the growth momentum. The professional forecasters’ survey of the Reserve
Bank registered a marginal upward revision in the GDP growth rate for 2010-11, on the
back of higher growth forecasts for agriculture and services sector. The overall outlook
suggests that notwithstanding some recent moderation in headline inflation, the level of
inflation remains above the comfort level. The Reserve Bank’s policy stance is likely to
be shaped by dual goals of maintaining the growth momentum in an atmosphere of
global uncertainty, while striving to moderate inflation further
Will the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raise policy rates for the sixth consecutive time this year to tame inflation? Wait for Tomorrow...looks like they are bit uncomfortable in controlling inflation

Wednesday, October 27, 2010

QE2 is coming...This November

Now a Days its mostly debated about QE2 across the boards and its implications on world economy.QE2 is nothing but Quantitative Easing a form of monetary stimulus which involves buying bonds from public.

Who is doing this ?  Managing the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet

The central bank is likely to unveil a program of U.S. Treasury bond purchases worth a few hundred billion dollars over several months, a measured approach in contrast to purchases of nearly $2 trillion it unveiled during the financial crisis.
 QE1 happened during crisis and they reacted in a number of ways,like purchases and reducing fed rate to near zero (0.25%) etc..

So what will happen if it buys back bonds from public?
The aim is to drive up the prices of long-term bonds, which in turn would push down long-term interest rates. It hopes that would spur more investment and spending and liven up the recovery.
The announcement is expected to be made at the conclusion of a two-day meeting of its policy-making committee next Wednesday.

So what are its implications?
 Growth will stay below trend, inflation below target and unemployment uncomfortably high—albeit with reduced risk of a double dip. For the Fed to come close to fulfilling its dual mandate of full employment and price stability, QE3 or QE4 may be needed in 2011.

 How about EM are like India?
EM is the main focus of the U.S. capital outflow. Leveraged carry-trades may pause for breath now that so much has been priced-in, but the real-money portfolio shift is likely to continue, causing near-term out performance, but sowing the seeds of future bubbles.
The talk of Fed going for QE2 brought huge inflows into indian Equity markets with FIIs investing a record $6.11 billion in October 
"FIIs see better rate of returns in emerging markets and India is set to attract a disproportionate share of inflows," Reliance Mutual Fund's head of equities Sunil Singhania said
 But with this FII flows its  obvious that rupee will appreciate and this inturn will hinder growth in exports which can be a cause of worry in near future.

           No FII inflow cap, but Re checks possible: FM
At this time, I am not thinking of putting any cap on FII (foreign institutional investment) inflows.
 The government ruled out curbs on foreign portfolio investment into the equity market, but said the central bank may intervene in the forex market to check rupee appreciation that was hurting exports

The current levels of capital inflows, which exceed financing requirements of the current account deficit, have put pressure on the rupee, resulting in its appreciation over the last few months.


The RBI has already expressed concerns over rising capital flows, which could further increase after further monetary tightening, which looks imperative in view of the sticky inflation.
Lets welcome November we will see a new game across countries related to forex,interest rates.inflation,unemplyement.

Friday, October 22, 2010

HSBC India Services PMI-Economic Indicator

 About the PMIs
Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs) have been specially developed to provide economic analysts, purchasing professionals, business decision-makers and policy makers with accurate and timely data to help better understand business conditions. In particular:
  • central banks in many countries use the data to help make interest rate decisions;
  • analysts in the financial markets use PMI data to reliably forecast official data such as GDP;
  • forecasters and planners in the corporate sector use the PMIs to help anticipate changing business conditions and to benchmark performance.
The indices are based on monthly questionnaire surveys of carefully selected companies which provide an advance indication of what is really happening in the private sector economy by tracking changes in variables such as output, new orders, stock levels, employment and prices across the manufacturing, construction, retail and service sectors.

The HSBC India Services PMI is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questionnaires sent to purchasing executives in around 350 private service sector companies.

The HSBC India Composite PMI is a weighted average of the Manufacturing Output Index and the Services Business Activity Index, and is based on original survey data collected from a representative panel of over 800 companies based in the Indian manufacturing and service sectors.

Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month based on data collected mid-month. For each of the indicators the ‘Report' shows the percentage reporting each response, the net difference between the number of higher/better responses and lower/worse responses, and the ‘diffusion' index. This index is the sum of the positive responses plus a half of those responding ‘the same'.

Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change. An index reading above 50 indicates an overall increase in that variable, below 50 an overall decrease.


October Month PMI report

Growth of activity in the Indian private sector economy slowed to weakest pace in
ten months in September
India's service industry is stepping off the throttle. Along with the manufacturing sector, growth is slowing, although the expansion continues. Price pressures, however, have not eased meaningfully, which represents a challenge for the central bank. The pace of hiring has slowed as well,even if it remains in positive territory. All this suggests a mild easing of demand growth since the red-hot pace earlier this year, but is hardly enough to relax the guard on inflation. Monetary officials may still need to tighten further to avert price pressure from becoming entrenched
It shows the growth which happened from the start of this year is slowing a bit and next month report will give a confirmation for this trend.With the Hot money coming into India it will be tough task for RBI to maintain exchange rate ,interest rate and inflation all Hitting at the same time .


Tuesday, October 12, 2010

FII's are Holding the Frontiers and DII's on a Killing Spree

My Recent posts on FII vs DII positions are the below links

September 15th : 19000 crossed...Whats next for Markets
July 4th : FII and DII investments in India
May11: Buying and Selling of FII vs DII

As we are now into 20000 need to look the flow direction and it looks like the flow direction from DII side is not changed as well as flow of funds from FII side is not changed.


FII flows into Indian Market is very Strong and this led to NIFTY cross 6000 mark,as FII believed India has growth story even when the rest of world is struggling and this led to more funds coming into India.I think the same Thing happened in 2007-2008 times before we came crashing down due to liquidity crisis. And this time chance of happening the previous crisis is very less cause there is abundant liquid in market .

At the same time governments across the world(US,EU) are ready to put more work at there printing presses.Especially US going for QE2 which might increase global liquid and there is good possibility that FII might be attracted and pour money  into EM which has growth story and specifically India.But there is a small tension across the rooms of currency war brewing in some parts of world, investors need to be cautious before they go for full fledged war

DII are on selling spree for a very long time and it looks like they aren't tired for now and especially the month of October the net position is very huge on negative side

Now comes  another intresting question? who are these DII which are on selling Mode in Indian Market.
For one thing DII are local people and they know the local conditions and there companies much better than FII. But when FII are Buying mode why are these people on selling mode.Yes one can understand that valuations might be a little stretched and they dont want to take risks or they might be taking profit and churning the portfolia. 

If thats the case why Retail investors are pulling money from MF from very long time. Is it purely because of SEBI banning entry and exit loads on MF products and distributors not selling them. I strongly believe that retail investors are bit intelligent and they know the mistakes they have done in past and looks like there are redeeming there units from MF as market looks a bit stretched .I don't have Data to support this. But my friend with whom i had a heated arugment will provide data for me:).
Will post on this more some time later 

Monday, October 11, 2010

Emerging Market Economies Leading Global Growth...But for how long?

Over the weekend lot of discussion happened at IMF,Washington DC and below RBI governor's comments on Role of Emerging Economies Going Forward and Key Policy Challenges

Here he talks about the Role of Emerging markets played in pulling the global markets from near depression and how its going to make impact to the rest of world going forward.

I guess when the EM was at peak in 2007  and rest of developed countries at the start of downward direction i  remember few saying that EME are decoupling from the rest of developed economies and EM will go up..but what happened  after that...every one knows....and same set of people after the crash in 2008 said that EM are  recouping with the rest of the world....Now fast forward from there to 2010 the same set of people :) are again started to say that we are decoupling again from the rest of the world..as rest of world is still struggling from the wounds it got from the crash and are growing near 2 % to 3% when EME are going at near 8% to 9% .

So how is this happening ? Basically there is plenty of Liquidity across the developed nations which is sitting idle as there are very less opportunities in there regions for growth so a whole lot of money is being pumped to EME. Now Question is how much more can they pump into these economies? It depends if US going for another round of QE2 (probability of happening this is high...as there wounds are not healed enough...same with the case of EU....) then i strongly believe that EME are going to see huge inflows which are never seen or heard. At least in India FII inflow is going to touch 1 trillion for the first time..

Another question coming to my mind..What if due to a policy decision are another unknown reason if money starts flowing out of EME..what is going to happen? Ob..markets and economy as such will go in South direction.

But before that happening can our regulators or persons with power can make some decisions to arrest the flow if such kind of event happening in near future and RBI governor said this at IMF over weekend
Furthermore, in evaluating the level of reserves and the quantum of self insurance of a country, it is important to distinguish between countries whose reserves are a consequence of current account surpluses and countries with current account deficits whose reserves are a result of capital inflows in excess of their economy’s absorptive capacity.
India falls in the latter category. Our reserves comprise essentially borrowed resources, and we are therefore more vulnerable to sudden stops and reversals as compared with countries with current account surpluses
I doubt it...cause one reason might be RBI going soft under the pressure from Ruling parties and key allies  are going for elections in some states...

It would be interesting to watch the policy makers game on tacking inflation,BOP and Exchange rate  in coming days ...

Thursday, October 7, 2010

Competitive Non Appreciation?

It has been two months since i last posted something on exchange rate stuff...but off late things are heating up across the Central Banks about related to currency.Almost all the developed economies are struggling to reduce the unemployment rate and trying hard to increase there GDP rate.

 They attribute much of current exchange rate stress is emergence of china and its willingness to peg Yuan to American dollar at a undervalued value. Which is giving unfair advantage to Chinese producers to export more out of china and making other countries suffer job loss and loss of export competitiveness 
Two years ago, the world economy was in the grip of an economic crisis on a scale not seen since the Great Depression.The United States and its partners in other leading economies, in an unprecedented feat of peacetime economic cooperation, joined forces to launch a powerful, dramatic response.    
Together, we put in place a powerful program of financial support – classic fiscal measures of tax cuts and investment, combined with monetary policy actions by central banks, and a variety of creative actions to stabilize our financial systems – to bring the global economy out of freefall and on a path to growth. 
We mobilized hundreds of billions of dollars in financial support for and through the international financial institutions for investments in emerging and developing economies.We committed to keep markets open to trade and investment, and together we honored that commitment in the face of strong political pressure.
We passed sweeping reforms of the U.S. financial system, and the world's central banks and supervisors reached agreement just two weeks ago on a very tough set of global standards for capital to limit leverage in the major global financial institutions. 
He is talking about Basel III norms which got finalized some time back and here is the link of my previous post to understanding-basel-iii-accord

These decisions required considerable trust and political resolve.  And they have been effective in restarting economic growth and stabilizing financial markets.  Global trade is now almost back to pre-crisis levels.
Look at the Baltic Dry index over which tracks the movement of ships in Sea which is pseudo indicator for economic activity or trade happening and clearly its not up to the levels of pre-crisis 
Each of our economies is stronger today than would otherwise have been possible, because of the effectiveness of this joint strategy. And the financial reforms now underway will substantially reduce the risk of damage from future financial crises.
Financial reforms which they made are just delaying the crisis and passing it on to future. Reforms in fact made money into pockets of rich and as long as Global imbalances are there we can expect another crisis any time from now :)

The Growth Challenge
What are the main challenges ahead?

The most important policy question we confront together is how to strengthen the pace of growth and repair, and how to do so in a way that provides the basis for a more balanced and therefore more sustainable global economic recovery.
I guess he is talking about the employment growth which is not happening in US can be seen in the latest ADP report  which says The decline in private employment in September confirms a pause in the economic recovery already evident in other data. 
And that is what is worrying economists across the globe as they think this is period is growth led recovery with no improvement in unemployment. Which is very dangerous and crisis may be back with a bang if this continues  
This is not a challenge that is best resolved by nations acting independently.  In the heat of the crisis, we all recognized that our actions would be more powerful if we acted together.  Even though the most dangerous part of the crisis is behind us, we are still in a place where we can achieve better overall growth outcomes if we make policy in a cooperative framework.

 a few suggestions on the policy challenges ahead in three areas: growth, exchange rate cooperation, and reform of the architecture of economic cooperation.

First, on economic growth.  The IMF forecasts the world economy will grow at a respectable annual rate of around four percent in 2011.  Growth is very strong in many of the major emerging economies.  In the major advanced economies, however, output and employment are still substantially below the pre-crisis levels, and the pace of recovery has been slower, with economic growth now running at a pace that is close to potential growth rates and not rapid enough to repair quickly the substantial economic damage remaining from the crisis.

Economic recoveries that follow financial crises are typically slower than those that follow other types of recessions.  This is because of the headwinds to growth that are generated by the necessary adjustments in asset prices and in reducing financial leverage.  As financial institutions rebuild their balance sheets and households reduce debt and raise savings, spending is slower to recover.  Firms, cautious after being burned by the financial panic, are less willing to invest and to hire because of uncertainty about future strength in demand for their products.  

The greatest risk to the world economy today is that the largest economies underachieve on growth.  We need to continue providing well-targeted support for the recovery in the near term even as we put in place plans to help ensure fiscal sustainability over the longer term.

And for the recovery to be sustainable, there must also be a change in the pattern of global growth.  For too long, many countries oriented their economies toward producing for export rather than consuming at home, counting on the United States to import many more of their goods and services than they bought of ours.
From here on he started talking indirectly about China and other developing countries 
The United States will do its part to achieve this adjustment.  Private savings have increased significantly, and, as the recovery strengthens, we will bring down our fiscal deficits to a sustainable level.

But as America saves more, countries overly reliant on exports to us for their own growth will need to change their policies, or else global growth will slow and all of us will be worse off.  Countries that chronically run large surpluses need to undertake policies that will boost their domestic demand.
I guess he is specifically talking about Chinese policy of keeping Yuan undervaluation and there by giving added advantage of Chinese exporters. How can too much export oriented markers like china ,japan increase domestic demand? I only knew of one thing which is lower taxes and there by keeping more money in public pocket and asking them to spend . Other than that anything else? no idea for now
That brings me to the second policy challenge: we believe it is very important to see more progress by the major emerging economies to more flexible, more market-oriented exchange rate systems.  This is particularly important for those countries whose currencies are significantly undervalued.
Like China which is pegging its yuan to dollar at a fixed rate from 2004 and here is the previous post related to it  basket-band-and-crawl-(BBC)
This is a problem because when large economies with undervalued exchange rates act to keep the currency from appreciating, that encourages other countries to do the same.
Yes looks like when China can do this why cant i do (JAPAN). Japan recently made jump into the bandwagon of group which is depreciating there currencies there by giving advantage to there export oriented companies. This is one kind of protectionist measures which are illegal according to WTO conventios

This sets off a damaging dynamic, described first by my former colleague Ted Truman, as "competitive non appreciation." Over time, more and more countries face stronger pressure to lean against the market forces pushing up the value of their currencies. The collective impact of this behavior risks either causing inflation and asset bubbles in emerging economies, or else depressing consumption growth and intensifying short-term distortions in favor of exports.

This is a multilateral problem.  It is unfair to countries that were already running more flexible regimes and let their currencies appreciate.  And it requires a cooperative approach to solve, because emerging economies individually will be less likely to move, unless they are confident other countries would move with them.
Japan acted on its own without a coordinated effort  into the currency market  for the first time in six years, buying dollars to weaken the surging yen  

This problem exposes once again the need for an effective multilateral mechanism to encourage economies running current account surpluses to abandon export-oriented policies, let their currencies appreciate, and strengthen domestic demand.  This is a necessary complement to the adjustments being undertaken by countries running current account deficits.  A cooperative re balancing of policy in this direction would be better for overall growth.

This issue was well-known to the group of economists who gathered in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, to refashion the war-ravaged global financial system in 1944.  The Articles of Agreement of the IMF, drafted at that conference, contain a now-obscure paragraph calling on the Fund to issue reports on countries with "scarce currencies"--what today we would call countries running persistent surpluses--"setting forth the causes of the scarcity and containing recommendations designed to bring it to an end."  That clause now reads like a relic of a bygone monetary era.  But the problem it was drafted to address--the threat to global financial stability posed by persistent, large surpluses--is as salient today as it was then.

This brings me to a third issue on the international agenda, the reform of the architecture of economic cooperation.

The Framework, called the "Framework for Strong, Sustainable and Balanced Growth," was designed to create stronger incentives for rebalancing growth, as the world recovered from the crisis, with higher savings in countries like the United States, complemented by reforms to strengthen domestic demand in surplus countries like China, other emerging economies, Germany, and Japan.


We agreed to pursue these two paths in parallel.  Each involved a change in the rights and responsibilities of the major economies, both emerging and advanced.
We have moved aggressively to do our part to help bring the world out of crisis.  We are working very hard to repair our financial system, to fix what was broken, and to reduce the future risk of financial crises here at home.  We have seen a very significant increase in private savings by households.  Our external deficit has fallen sharply, and we are financing at home a much larger share of the fiscal deficits we inherited.

We still have a lot of challenges ahead of us to strengthen growth and to restore fiscal sustainability.  And we expect to work closely with Congress in the months ahead on how best to move forward.   
 Mr. Geithner said that “China will be less likely to move, to allow its currency to appreciate more rapidly, if it’s not confident that other countries will move with it.”
His warnings were echoed, in crucial respects, by the I.M.F., which released its latest World Economic Outlook on Wednesday.


sources:

Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Recap of a Bailout

A Bailout is act of providing capital to a entity that is in danger of failing or its act of saving it from failing and there by causing less damage to others with its contagion effect.

Now Question are:
Why will anyone be ready to bailout a entity if its failing ,How can it get back its capital back?.What if the entity needs more capital than the amount supplied to it?.What is the plan of entity to repay back the capital provided?.How much can be Trusted on this entity ?

Bailing out is easy but why should some one bailout after all the entity is mismanaged its money and came into this situation and many will argue that it should suffer for its misdeeds.Generally government bailouts happen with public money and most of the cases public will be angry with govt decision.

Bailouts generally encourage corporate irresponsibility and may be give a chance for them to act irrationally as they think that government is there in back of us and nothing is going to happen.
We can see that most of Big Banks in US got Bailed out for now..but if they repeat the same mistakes by there aggressive risk taking then govt will not be in a position to bailout.

Themes for Bailout: Wiki Link
# Central banks provide loans to help the system cope with liquidity concerns, where banks are unable or unwilling to provide loans to businesses or individuals.
# Let insolvent institutions (i.e., those with insufficient funds to pay their short-term obligations or those with more debt than assets) fail in an orderly way.
# Understand the true financial position of key financial institutions, through audits or other means.
# Banks that are deemed healthy enough (or important enough) to survive require recapitalization, which involves the government providing funds to the bank in exchange for preferred stock.                                                                                                                       
# Government should take an ownership (equity or stock) interest to the extent taxpayer assistance is provided, so that taxpayers can benefit later.
# Prohibit dividend payments, to ensure taxpayer money are used for loans and strengthening the bank, rather than payments to investors.
# Interest rate cuts, to lower lending rates and stimulate the economy
And why am talking about Bailout all of sudden when season flavor is Forex market and  Ongoing Bull Market
Coz...Coz.Today i was Bailed Out by my friend Bullzzzz :) Hope i will not make the mistake of mismanaging capital and avoid aggressive risk taking. Need more clarity or if u want to share your experience then contact me at 09884839655 or plekkala.ibm@gmail.com

Recession is over for now

At last The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research determined the end of recession which created some amount of insecurity into my life. It excatly started when got into corporate from students life and  had to experience first hand effects of it like my company conducting a eliminating exam for graduates who joined in 2007, somehow i managed it but that's a different story.
Some observations from Committee report :

The committee determined that a trough in business activity occurred in the U.S. economy in June 2009. The trough marks the end of the recession that began in December 2007 and the beginning of an expansion. The recession lasted 18 months, which makes it the longest of any recession since World War II. Previously the longest postwar recessions were those of 1973-75 and 1981-82, both of which lasted 16 months.
 At that time my project was with American client so faced the music and now its European client and still they haven't come out of the woods and am still facing the music
In determining that a trough occurred in June 2009, the committee did not conclude that economic conditions since that month have been favorable or that the economy has returned to operating at normal capacity. Rather, the committee determined only that the recession ended and a recovery began in that month.
Am not sure of any indicators turning pre-crisis levels
The trough marks the end of the declining phase and the start of the rising phase of the business cycle. Economic activity is typically below normal in the early stages of an expansion, and it sometimes remains so well into the expansion.
Meaning last recession is over and we are into expansion phase with a slow growth

The committee decided that any future downturn of the economy would be a new recession and not a continuation of the recession that began in December 2007. The basis for this decision was the length and strength of the recovery to date.
That means if any GDP drop occurs going forward implies that we might face another recession thats what people are calling it as double dip recession . For now we are safe cause of policies adopted by government is increasing consumption. But how far can government stretch to avoid double . Only time will tell it

Link of Committee report

Wednesday, September 15, 2010

19000 crossed...Whats next for Markets

All of Sudden Markets across the global went from Bear market to Bull market with a short span of 1 week started with ISM Index on September 1 in US , Economic Data coming from China and very good  IIP Data of  industrial growth at 13.8 per cent in July in India led to markets moving by over 5% to 7% within a short span.

Though they are some concernes with Data coming especially Dr.Doom commenting that ISM Data is flawed
and our own Provisional Data of IIP might not be very reliable   as commented by analysts.

So what exactly moved our markets in very short span..one reason is good IIP Data and domestic Demand coupled with Strong FII inflows Made our markets reaching 33 months High and now the same analysts are saying 20000 and 21000 for sensex is no BigDeal

And also there is talk of some Hedge funds pouring money into market when our own Domestic institutional investors are pulling out the money . To get a better understanding check the below chart
 Can see that DII were selling huges amount in last 3 days

Check this to get a look of FII flows ,whole of August and September except on last expiry day FII seems to be buying into equities

FII Net position (Total Buy -Total Sell) is very huge meaning FII are Buying more than Selling and thats what precisely is adding Fuel to the markets for now..

Looks like they might keep on doing that for some more time..untial the valuations of index becomes High and I guess we have RBI midterm policy review and Analysts are expecting a a hike of 25 to 50 bps in Repo Ratio. and do something to control inflation without effecting the growth.

I guess the current market run is due to FII and Liquidity driven rise and expect RBI to suck some amount of Liquid from market before inflation becomes too hot to handle. Lets see Tomorrow ..cya for now

Tuesday, September 14, 2010

Understanding Basel iii Accord

     Basel 3 Accord which was agreed by governors across the globe over this weekend to implement new set of rules to prevent another financial crisis,am not sure how its going to prevent another crisis..cause Basel 2 which was published on 2004 didnt prevent the crisis. Now its pointed by critics that basel 3 implementations got diluted for the sake of few selected countries. Will try to uncover whats this all about.
A. Tier 1 Capital

A1. BASEL II:
Tier 1 capital ratio = 4%
Core Tier 1 capital ratio = 2%
The difference between the total capital requirement of 8.0% and the Tier 1 requirement can be met with Tier 2 capital
A2. BASEL III:
Tier 1 Capital Ratio = 6%
Core Tier 1 Capital Ratio (Common Equity after deductions) = 4.5%
Core Tier 1 Capital Ratio (Common Equity after deductions) before 2013 = 2%, 1st January 2013 = 3.5%, 1st January 2014 = 4%, 1st January 2015 = 4.5%
The difference between the total capital requirement of 8.0% and the Tier 1 requirement can be met with Tier 2 capital.
Capital Requiement :
Tier 1 capital consists largely of shareholders' equity. This is the amount paid up to originally purchase the stock (or shares) of the Bank (not the amount those shares are currently trading for on the stock exchange), retained profits subtracting accumulated losses,

Tier 2 Capital 
A term used to describe the capital adequacy of a bank. Tier II capital is secondary bank capital that includes items such as undisclosed reserves, general loss reserves, subordinated term debt, and more

B. Capital Conservation Buffer

B1. BASEL II:
There is no capital conservation buffer.

B2. BASEL III:
Banks will be required to hold a capital conservation buffer of 2.5% to withstand future periods of stress bringing the total common equity requirements to 7%.
Capital Conservation Buffer of 2.5 percent, on top of Tier 1 capital, will be met with common equity, after the application of deductions.
Capital Conservation Buffer before 2016 = 0%, 1st January 2016 = 0.625%, 1st January 2017 = 1.25%, 1st January 2018 = 1.875%, 1st January 2019 = 2.5%

The purpose of the conservation buffer is to ensure that banks maintain a buffer of capital that can be used to absorb losses during periods of financial and economic stress. While banks are allowed to draw on the buffer during such periods of stress, the closer their regulatory capital ratios approach the minimum requirement, the greater the constraints on earnings distributions.If Banks are in buffer zone then they are restricted of paying out bonuses ,share buy back,dividends etc..

C. Countercyclical Capital Buffer
C1. BASEL II:
There is no Countercyclical Capital Buffer

C2. BASEL III:
A countercyclical buffer within a range of 0% – 2.5% of common equity or other fully loss absorbing capital will be implemented according to national circumstances.
Banks that have a capital ratio that is less than 2.5%, will face restrictions on payouts of dividends, share buybacks and bonuses.
The buffer will be phased in from January 2016 and will be fully effective in January 2019.
Countercyclical Capital Buffer before 2016 = 0%, 1st January 2016 = 0.625%, 1st January 2017 = 1.25%, 1st January 2018 = 1.875%, 1st January 2019 = 2.5%
 The purpose of the counter cyclical buffer is to achieve the broader macro prudential goal of protecting the banking sector from periods of excess aggregate credit growth With them, banks increase their capital in good times, not bad. And then, in bad times, they disappear: regulators can (and indeed are encouraged to) abolish the buffers immediately, if there’s some kind of credit crisis. When write-downs eat into bank capital, they eat only into the buffer, which is no longer required, rather than the underlying minimum capital requirement.

D. Capital for Systemically Important Banks only

D1. BASEL II:
There is no Capital for Systemically Important Banks
D2. BASEL III:
Systemically important banks should have loss absorbing capacity beyond the standards announced today and work continues on this issue in the Financial Stability Board and relevant Basel Committee work streams.

The Basel Committee and the FSB are developing a well integrated approach to systemically important financial institutions which could include combinations of capital surcharges, contingent capital and bail-in debt. 
Total Regulatory Capital Ratio = [Tier 1 Capital Ratio] + [Capital Conservation Buffer] + [Countercyclical Capital Buffer] + [Capital for Systemically Important Banks]
Will try to see how these rules going to effect indian banks..I have a feeling that indian banks need to maintain a higher ratio cause here in india as we have high inflation and  it will eat into banks capital...cya in next post

links which can be referenced :
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_requirement
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/09/12/340356/basel-iii-has-landed-full-details/
Bank of international settlements paper
http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2010/07/16/basel-iii-the-incomplete-capital-buffer-proposal/